go and float for 10 mins in a local pond and see how your arms work after that. It's sounds dumb but it's a good way to test what you need to wear.
A NRS or kokatat thin neoprene hood makes a world of difference.
I wear a 3mm wet suit and dry top in the PNW with 50F water and air but I have a roll. If I do come out of my boat I'm back in under a minute. If you are counting on swimming to shore, I would dress for the water temp.
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