walk/swim 80 along the shore - but no 80 feet out - with a change of clothing, a car with a good heater and preferably a friend nearby.
You lose body heat 25 times faster in water than in air. Colder is worse - whether it be colder water, colder air, more wind chill or a combination thereof.
The bottom line is that you are hearing from people who have found out by personal experience what temperatures start getting dangerous for them. You are talking about temps that are within that range for some, or colder in my case.
You are getting good advice to avoid paddling as things get colder without some solid experimentation to see what is safe for you. You should be embarking on that, rather than trying to get a magic number at which folks here will advise you it is safe to paddle.
Classic Freestanding Rack
Kayak & Canoe Covers
Sport Cases (Electronics)
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