Sebago--lately will not freeze in the middle. Its over 400 feet deep in one spot.
Wave action is working now to keep the near shore ice free but when the ice starts to form, that effect diminishes each day. Depth does prevent the middle from freezing even there is 3 feet of ice in near shore areas. Snomobilers at night from away sometimes find this out the hard way. Each year we have human depth finders. Sorry to be crude, but they invariably die. Already had one this year.
So I suspect your lake too is deep. It would be far safer to use your clothing approach on a shallow windy river. I understand a fair number of Midwest paddlers do this in the winter.
An upset can be no more than a minute swim to where you can stand. Get your stuff out of the dry bag and strip and change. And paddle home as you can't do an upset twice.
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