This is a classic problem
Posted by: Dr_Disco on Jul-10-11 8:15 PM (EST)
and this is a cogent comment. At the individual level, the question of how likely YOU are to be struck by lightning comes down to what the environmental circumstances are that increase or decrease your "chances". What can you do to decrease your chances in the circumstances you are in? You cannot derive those statistics from aggregate statistics. That is a well known statistical fallacy. But you can get a handle on it by analyzing the physical processes involved. So "exposure" may be important for aggregate statistics but useless for individual fate.